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Table 1

Comparison of characteristic times in the propagation of the pandemic, deaths rates (maximum daily deaths and cumulative death tolls, normalized per 100,000 inhabitants, observed till the 8 May 2020) for the selection of 32 countries considered here. Lockdown start and lift dates are from references [2636, 4054]. Assuming a fatality rate of 0.5%, the percentage of population already hit by the virus is estimated for each country. The countries are ranked into four Groups A–D, depending on the degree of propagation of the pandemic in their population.

Country Start of regime 2 (d = 0) Delay in comparison with China Lockdown start Lockdown start (shifted time d) Peak in daily reported cases/deaths (shifted time d) Lockdown lift Lockdown lift (shifted time d) Daily deaths/100,000 inhabitants (maximum) 8 May 2020 Cumulative deaths/100,000 inhabitants 8 May 2020 Estimation of contaminated population (%) 8 May 2020 Group
Taiwan 22 Mar 61 1/– < 0.01 0.03 0.005 A
Hong Kong 9 Feb 19 48/– < 0.01 0.05 0.01 A
China 21 Jan 0 23 Jan 2 14/26 8 Apr 78 0.01–0.02 0.32 0.06 A
Singapore 17 Mar 56 7 Apr 21 34/– 0.01–0.02 0.34 0.07 A
Japan 03 Mar 42 44/– 0.01–0.03 0.46 0.09 A
South Korea 14 Feb 24 16/37 0.01–0.02 0.50 0.10 A
Philippines 11 Mar 50 15 Mar 4 –/– 0.01–0.03 0.64 0.13 A
Nigeria 1 Apr 71 30 Mar −2 –/– 0.002–0.01 0.06 0.01 A
India 25 Mar 64 25 Mar 0 –/– 0.004–0.015 0.15 0.03 A
South Africa 25 Mar 64 26 Mar 2 –/– 0.01–0.03 0.30 0.06 A
Australia 17 Mar 56 23 Mar 6 10/– 0.01–0.03 0.38 0.08 A
Morocco 16 Mar 55 20 Mar 4 36/24 0.01–0.03 0.51 0.10 A
Russia 23 Mar 62 31 Mar 8 –/– 0.05–0.07 1.2 0.24 B
Greece 4 Mar 43 23 Mar 19 26/– 0.03–0.07 1.4 0.29 B
Mexico 21 Mar 60 21 Apr 31 0.15–0.2 2.5 0.50 B
Czech Republic 11 Mar 50 14 Mar 3 19/27 0.1–0.15 2.6 0.51 B
Israel 12 Mar 51 21/32 0.1–0.2 2.9 0.58 B
Norway 5 Mar 44 12 Mar 7 22/36 20 Apr 46 0.1–0.25 4.0 0.81 B
Turkey 11 Mar 50 33/38 0.15 4.4 0.88 B
Brazil 15 Mar 53 –/– 0.3–0.4 4.75 0.95 B
Iran 15 Feb 25 43/41 0.15–0.2 7.9 1.6 C
Germany 5 Mar 44 21–23 Mar 16–18 24/41 0.2–0.5 9.0 1.8 C
Portugal 4 Mar 43 19 Mar 15 28/36 0.3 10.9 2.2 C
Switzerland 27 Feb 37 17 Mar 19 28/40 0.5–1 21.2 4.2 D
USA 5 Mar 44 19 Mar–7 Apr 14–33 –/– 0.5–1.5 23.5 4.7 D
The Netherlands 27 Feb 37 23 Mar 25 40/44 0.7–1.5 31.3 6.3 D
Sweden 4 Mar 43 –/– 1–2 31.8 6.4 D
France 26 Feb 35 17 Mar 20 40/45 1–2 40.2 8.0 D
UK 02 Mar 41 23 Mar 21 –/– 1–1.5 46.3 9.3 D
Italy 15 Feb 25 8 Mar 22 37/41 1–1.5 49.8 10.0 D
Spain 22 Feb 32 15 Mar 22 35/39 2 56.3 11.3 D
Belgium 1 Mar 40 18 Mar 17 39/45 3–5 74.1 14.8 D

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