Table 1
Comparison of characteristic times in the propagation of the pandemic, deaths rates (maximum daily deaths and cumulative death tolls, normalized per 100,000 inhabitants, observed till the 8 May 2020) for the selection of 32 countries considered here. Lockdown start and lift dates are from references [26–36, 40–54]. Assuming a fatality rate of 0.5%, the percentage of population already hit by the virus is estimated for each country. The countries are ranked into four Groups A–D, depending on the degree of propagation of the pandemic in their population.
Country | Start of regime 2 (d = 0) | Delay in comparison with China | Lockdown start | Lockdown start (shifted time d) | Peak in daily reported cases/deaths (shifted time d) | Lockdown lift | Lockdown lift (shifted time d) | Daily deaths/100,000 inhabitants (maximum) 8 May 2020 | Cumulative deaths/100,000 inhabitants 8 May 2020 | Estimation of contaminated population (%) 8 May 2020 | Group |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Taiwan | 22 Mar | 61 | – | – | 1/– | – | – | < 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.005 | A |
Hong Kong | 9 Feb | 19 | – | – | 48/– | – | – | < 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | A |
China | 21 Jan | 0 | 23 Jan | 2 | 14/26 | 8 Apr | 78 | 0.01–0.02 | 0.32 | 0.06 | A |
Singapore | 17 Mar | 56 | 7 Apr | 21 | 34/– | – | – | 0.01–0.02 | 0.34 | 0.07 | A |
Japan | 03 Mar | 42 | – | – | 44/– | – | – | 0.01–0.03 | 0.46 | 0.09 | A |
South Korea | 14 Feb | 24 | – | – | 16/37 | – | – | 0.01–0.02 | 0.50 | 0.10 | A |
Philippines | 11 Mar | 50 | 15 Mar | 4 | –/– | – | – | 0.01–0.03 | 0.64 | 0.13 | A |
Nigeria | 1 Apr | 71 | 30 Mar | −2 | –/– | – | – | 0.002–0.01 | 0.06 | 0.01 | A |
India | 25 Mar | 64 | 25 Mar | 0 | –/– | – | – | 0.004–0.015 | 0.15 | 0.03 | A |
South Africa | 25 Mar | 64 | 26 Mar | 2 | –/– | – | – | 0.01–0.03 | 0.30 | 0.06 | A |
Australia | 17 Mar | 56 | 23 Mar | 6 | 10/– | – | – | 0.01–0.03 | 0.38 | 0.08 | A |
Morocco | 16 Mar | 55 | 20 Mar | 4 | 36/24 | – | – | 0.01–0.03 | 0.51 | 0.10 | A |
Russia | 23 Mar | 62 | 31 Mar | 8 | –/– | – | – | 0.05–0.07 | 1.2 | 0.24 | B |
Greece | 4 Mar | 43 | 23 Mar | 19 | 26/– | – | – | 0.03–0.07 | 1.4 | 0.29 | B |
Mexico | 21 Mar | 60 | 21 Apr | 31 | – | – | 0.15–0.2 | 2.5 | 0.50 | B | |
Czech Republic | 11 Mar | 50 | 14 Mar | 3 | 19/27 | – | – | 0.1–0.15 | 2.6 | 0.51 | B |
Israel | 12 Mar | 51 | – | – | 21/32 | – | – | 0.1–0.2 | 2.9 | 0.58 | B |
Norway | 5 Mar | 44 | 12 Mar | 7 | 22/36 | 20 Apr | 46 | 0.1–0.25 | 4.0 | 0.81 | B |
Turkey | 11 Mar | 50 | – | – | 33/38 | – | – | 0.15 | 4.4 | 0.88 | B |
Brazil | 15 Mar | 53 | – | – | –/– | – | – | 0.3–0.4 | 4.75 | 0.95 | B |
Iran | 15 Feb | 25 | – | – | 43/41 | – | – | 0.15–0.2 | 7.9 | 1.6 | C |
Germany | 5 Mar | 44 | 21–23 Mar | 16–18 | 24/41 | – | – | 0.2–0.5 | 9.0 | 1.8 | C |
Portugal | 4 Mar | 43 | 19 Mar | 15 | 28/36 | – | – | 0.3 | 10.9 | 2.2 | C |
Switzerland | 27 Feb | 37 | 17 Mar | 19 | 28/40 | – | – | 0.5–1 | 21.2 | 4.2 | D |
USA | 5 Mar | 44 | 19 Mar–7 Apr | 14–33 | –/– | – | – | 0.5–1.5 | 23.5 | 4.7 | D |
The Netherlands | 27 Feb | 37 | 23 Mar | 25 | 40/44 | – | – | 0.7–1.5 | 31.3 | 6.3 | D |
Sweden | 4 Mar | 43 | – | – | –/– | – | – | 1–2 | 31.8 | 6.4 | D |
France | 26 Feb | 35 | 17 Mar | 20 | 40/45 | – | – | 1–2 | 40.2 | 8.0 | D |
UK | 02 Mar | 41 | 23 Mar | 21 | –/– | – | – | 1–1.5 | 46.3 | 9.3 | D |
Italy | 15 Feb | 25 | 8 Mar | 22 | 37/41 | – | – | 1–1.5 | 49.8 | 10.0 | D |
Spain | 22 Feb | 32 | 15 Mar | 22 | 35/39 | – | – | 2 | 56.3 | 11.3 | D |
Belgium | 1 Mar | 40 | 18 Mar | 17 | 39/45 | – | – | 3–5 | 74.1 | 14.8 | D |
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