Research Article

A copula based representation for tailings dam failures

¹ School of Technology, University of Campinas, Paschoal Marmo 1888, 13484-332 Limeira, S.P., Brazil
² Department of Statistics, University of Campinas, Sergio Buarque de Holanda 651, 13083-859 Campinas, S.P., Brazil

^* Corresponding author: rafael.moraes@gmx.de

Received: 16 March 2020
Accepted: 13 August 2020

Abstract

In this article, we model the dependence between dam factor and D _max, where dam factor is an indicator of risk of a tailings dam failure, which involves the height H of the tailings dam, the volume of material housed by the tailings dam V_T and the volume dispensed by the tailings dam, V_F, when the dam breaks. And, D_max is the maximum distance traveled by the material released by the tailings dam, after the collapse. With the dependence found via copula models and Bayesian estimation, given a range of dam factor, we estimate the probability of the released material to exceed a certain threshold. Since the dam factor involves the released volume V_F (unknown before the dam break), we present a naive way to estimate it using V_T and H. In this way, it is possible to estimate the dam factor of a tailings dam and with such a value to identify the probability of the tailings dam to show a D_max that exceeds a certain threshold.