| Issue |
4open
Volume 3, 2020
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 12 | |
| Number of page(s) | 10 | |
| Section | Mathematics - Applied Mathematics | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/fopen/2020011 | |
| Published online | 25 September 2020 | |
Research Article
A copula based representation for tailings dam failures
1
School of Technology, University of Campinas, Paschoal Marmo 1888, 13484-332 Limeira, S.P., Brazil
2
Department of Statistics, University of Campinas, Sergio Buarque de Holanda 651, 13083-859 Campinas, S.P., Brazil
* Corresponding author: rafael.moraes@gmx.de
Received:
16
March
2020
Accepted:
13
August
2020
In this article, we model the dependence between dam factor and D max, where dam factor is an indicator of risk of a tailings dam failure, which involves the height H of the tailings dam, the volume of material housed by the tailings dam VT and the volume dispensed by the tailings dam, VF, when the dam breaks. And, Dmax is the maximum distance traveled by the material released by the tailings dam, after the collapse. With the dependence found via copula models and Bayesian estimation, given a range of dam factor, we estimate the probability of the released material to exceed a certain threshold. Since the dam factor involves the released volume VF (unknown before the dam break), we present a naive way to estimate it using VT and H. In this way, it is possible to estimate the dam factor of a tailings dam and with such a value to identify the probability of the tailings dam to show a Dmax that exceeds a certain threshold.
Key words: Copula models / Bayesian estimation / Conditional probability
© L.M. Canno Ferreira Fais, et al., Published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.